The Recovery Embeddedness Model

An exploratory companion theory to CEM

Working hypothesis

REM is an exploratory companion theory that asks whether the same embeddedness logic developed for criminal offending in the Criminogenic Embeddedness Model applies to substance abuse recovery and relapse.

Where it comes from

The starting observation is clinical. In my own practice as a substance abuse counselor, I see the same asymmetric pattern CEM identifies in offending, where relapse risk accumulates unevenly and residual embeddedness in old networks and routines predicts return to use even after periods of stability.

Current status

REM is being tested for statistical support against longitudinal data before any further theoretical development. The planned analyses were preregistered on the Open Science Framework in October 2026, and the registration will become public at the end of 2026. It remains a working hypothesis, not a finished model. Results will be posted here and on the blog as they become available.